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WSA-ENLIL+Cone Model For 2.0 AU with Completion Time:
2024-04-15T19:57Z
Model Inputs: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=859.0, HalfAngle=34.0, Time21.5=2024-04-14T14:48Z 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-10.0, Lat.=6.0, Speed=724.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2024-04-15T10:52Z Model Outputs: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-04-17T01:05Z (+- 7 hours) [PE: -51.8 hr] Duration of disturbance (hr) = 57.0 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 5.8 Possible Kp index: (kp)90=5 (kp)135=6 (kp)180=7 Other Location(s) Impact: STEREO A with estimated shock arrival time 2024-04-17T01:34Z Lucy with estimated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T00:00Z (Glancing Blow) Psyche with estimated shock arrival time 2024-04-21T18:00Z (Glancing Blow) Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif Note : The two CMEs in this simulation did not combine prior to impacting STEREO A and Earth, leading to a double peaked arrival in the STEREO A and Earth timelines. The second CME (2024-04-15T06:48Z) will impact STEREO A around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Earth around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The CMEs merge closer to each other after 1AU for impacts at Lucy and Psyche, with a slight separation remaining between the fronts. Submitted on 2024-04-15T20:19Z by Tony Iampietro A Notification with ID 20240415-AL-002 was sent on 2024-04-15T20:54Z A Notification with ID 20240417-AL-001 was sent on 2024-04-17T01:39Z |
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